Double or nothing allows you to bet your entire tangerine stash against winning back your stash twice.

## Odds Edit

The odds start at 50%. However, it can be changed from the bottom right by adding 1% increments to tip the balance in your favor. This can also be increased via perks. Maximum win chance is 75%.

The cost for upgrading gamble chance by 1% with perks: Perks (This persists between multiverse breaches.)

The cost for upgrading gamble chance by 1% with tangerines (which does *not* persist between multiverse breaches):

Percent | Cost |
---|---|

1% | 10 |

2% | 100 |

3% | 1,000 |

4% | 10,000 |

5% | 100,000 |

6% | 1,000,000 |

7% | 10,000,000 |

8% | 100,000,000 |

9% | 1,000,000,000 |

10% | 1^e10 |

11% | 1^e11 |

12% | 1^e12 |

13% | 1^e13 |

14% | 1^e14 |

15% | 1^e15 |

## Achievements Edit

There are 5 achievements associated with this page:

- Bad Gamble - Lose a thousand tangerines in a single gamble
- Good Gamble - Win a million tangerines in a single gamble
- Oh No - Lose a billion tangerines in a single gamble
- OH YES - Win 1 e^13 tangerines in a single gamble
- Pengrine21591 - Lose 2.48 e^66 in a single gamble

### Optimizing bet size with Kelly CiterionEdit

With Kelly citerion, bet size can be controlled to achieve continous growth of the stack.

The return on any single bet is

**(1) R=(1+n)^x*(1-n)^(x-1)**, where n is the fraction of your tangerine to bet and x is your winning probability.

To find the optimal return on a bet, we have to find the roots of the derivative of this function

∂R/∂n = -(1-n)^-x*(1+n)^(x-1)*(n-2x+1) = 0

The roots are n=-1, n=1, and n=2x-1 (only the last root proves valuable)

**(2) n=2x-1 **n is the optimal bet amount for win odds x

For example, if you win 62% of the time you should only bet 24% of your stack. This could be done by purchasing 2 stock with 50% of your value. You will be left with 25% of your original value (close to 24%) and can use this value for betting. After you place a bet, regardless of the outcome, you should cash in your stock and start over again. (Growth rate of your capital in this example is approximately 3% for each bet. Doubling time is about 24 bets)

If you win 75% of the time, you should bet 50% of your stack each time. (Growth rate of your capital is approximately 14% for each bet, doubling time is about 5.3 bets). If each betting round takes 4 seconds (can be taken down to 2 seconds with the use of scripting) it should take just under 6 hours to get the "The Fulliverse" achievement.

It is not worthwhile to use this technique until win odds are above 60% as the average growth is only 2%.

Bet intervals of 1/32 (3.1%) can be chosen by using all 5 stocks. Below is a list of useful stock investment percentages. Remember that your bet percentage is [1-investment percentage].

.75 [buy 1 2]

.719 [buy 1 2 3 4 5, sell 2]

.688 [buy 1 2 3 4, sell 2]

.656 [buy 1 2 3 4 5, sell 2 4]

.625 [buy 1 2 3 sell 2]

.594 [buy 1 2 3 4 5 sell 2 3]

.563 [buy 1 2 3 4 sell 2 3]

.531 [buy 1 2 3 4 5 sell 2 3 4]

.5 [buy 1]